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Latest CMI model reveals clear trend in life expectancy

Average mortality improvements between 2011 and 2017 were significantly lower than for any other recent six-year period, according to data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI).

At a glance

  • Mortality improvements continue to decline after handbrake turn in 2011

  • Change likely due to long-term influences not short-term events

  • Bulk annuity pricing unlikely to see big jump this year as trend sets

The reduction to the rate at which life expectancy is increased is driven by “persistent influences’ rather than short-term events such as the 2015 influenza outbreak, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) Mortality Projections Committee has said.

The accompanying analysis shows that average mortality improvements over the six years since 2011 have been 0.5% per year for males and 0.1% per year for females. Improvements were particularly low in 2016, with a spike in deaths thought to have reduced life expectancies by four months for a 65-year-old man, and six months for a woman of the same age at the start of last year.

Aon senior longevity consultant Matthew Fletcher suggests: "While mortality improvements have fallen across the whole population, there is some evidence which shows they have fallen less for those in higher socio-economic groups than for those in lower socio-economic groups.

How CMI Model works:

  • The CMI Model is a model of the reductions in mortality rates from year to year, driven by user inputs. It is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate.

  • The model smooths historical mortality rates to reduce the effect of volatility and produces estimates of current improvements by age and gender. It then blends between current and long-term future mortality improvements.


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